\n20, septiembre de 2022<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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- Scientists warn that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point beyond which it would begin to transition from a lush tropical forest into a dry, degraded savanna. This point may be reached when 25% of the forest is lost.<\/em><\/li>\n
- In a newly released report, the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP) estimates that 13.2% of the original Amazon forest biome has been lost due to deforestation and other causes.<\/em><\/li>\n
- However, when the map is divided into thirds, it shows that 31% of the eastern Amazon has been lost. Moisture cycles through the forest from east to west, creating up to half of all rainfall across the Amazon. The 31% figure is critical, the report says, \u201cbecause the tipping point will likely be triggered in the east.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n
- Experts say the upcoming elections in Brazil could have dramatic consequences for the Amazon, and to avert the tipping point we must lower emissions, undertake ambitious reforestation projects, and build an economy based on the standing forest. Granting and honoring Indigenous land tenure and protected areas are also key strategies.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Scientists warn that the Amazon is hurtling toward a\u00a0tipping point<\/a>, beyond which it would begin to transition from lush tropical forest into a dry, degraded savanna, unable to support the immense diversity of life that call the world\u2019s largest rainforest home.<\/p>\n
This change could be triggered when 25% of the forest has been lost under current climate pressures,\u00a0scientists estimate<\/a>. So how close are we to the tipping point? To answer that question, we need to know how much of the original Amazon forest biome has been lost.<\/p>\n
\u201cSurprisingly, we did not find any actual definitive studies that answered this question directly,\u201d Matt Finer, senior research specialist and director of the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP), a U.S.-based nonprofit, told Mongabay. So, about three years ago, MAAP set out to do exactly that.<\/p>\n
In a\u00a0newly released report<\/a>, MAAP estimates that 13.2%\u00a0of the original Amazon forest biome has been lost due to deforestation and other causes. This equates to more than\u00a085 million hectares\u00a0(211 million acres), an\u00a0area<\/a>\u00a0about one-tenth the size of the United States or China.<\/p>\n
![\"Total](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/20151126\/1maaproject.org-maap-164-amazon-tipping-point-where-are-we-Map2-Total-Deforestation-AmzBiog-200dpi-Eng.jpg\")
Map showing total forest loss in the original Amazon forest biome. An estimate 13.2% has been lost due to deforestation and other causes. Data from Amazon Conservation Association and MAAP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/20153818\/MAAP_OG-MAP.jpeg\")
The original Amazon biome forest prior to European colonization: more than 647 million hectares (1.6 billion acres). Data from Amazon Conservation Association and MAAP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n To arrive at this number, MAAP first had to create a map of the original Amazon biome, prior to European colonization, and then overlay the total historical forest loss. The researchers combined data from the University of Maryland, Brazil\u2019s national space research institute (INPE), ArcGis satellite images, Planet mosaics, Google Earth Engine Landsat images, and official government data for several countries.\u00a0 They made modifications such as converting deforested areas and historic dam reservoirs to original forest to reconstruct the biome.<\/p>\n
The MAAP highlights another critical number. When divided into thirds, the map shows that 31% of the eastern Amazon is gone. \u201cThis finding is critical,\u201d the report says, \u201cbecause the tipping point will likely be triggered in the east.\u201d Tree loss in the east is significant because moisture cycles through the forest from east to west, creating up to 50% of all rainfall across the Amazon.<\/p>\n
\u201cWater for the Amazon is coming from the [Atlantic] ocean,\u201d Finer said. \u201cYou see the map and all of a sudden realize, this is a whole different ballgame.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Total](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/20151511\/MAAP_THIRDSMAP.jpeg\")
Total Amazon forest loss. Vertical lines indicate the Amazon split into thirds; 31% of the eastern Amazon has been lost to deforestation and other causes. Data from Amazon Conservation Association and MAAP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Amazon Rainforest gets up to half of its rain from moisture recycling. The sun warms the surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean and causes vapor to rise and form clouds. These clouds carry rain to the eastern Amazon. The forest absorbs the rain and then releases water vapor back into the atmosphere through transpiration. This water vapor from eastern forests is\u00a0carried by winds to the west<\/a>, and forms the Amazon\u2019s \u201cflying rivers,\u201d which rain down in the west. Thus, deforestation in the east may have a more detrimental effect on the whole system.<\/p>\n
\u201cDeforestation is not created equal when you\u2019re talking about the tipping point,\u201d Finer said. \u201cThe real number to pay attention to is this 31%.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another\u00a0recent study<\/a>\u00a0found that for every three trees that die due to drought in the Amazon Rainforest, a fourth tree, even if it\u2019s not directly affected by drought, will also die. With fewer trees in the east to recycle moisture due to drought and deforestation, the rest of the Amazon becomes drier. \u201cThe lack of moisture recycling in some parts of the forest can be propagated downwind \u2026 resulting in approximately one-third of all tipping events,\u201d the paper says.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/20151856\/Brazil_v2.png\")
This map shows the atmospheric moisture recycling network, overlayed atop the MAAP deforestation map. Arrows represent the direction of moisture flow from the Atlantic Ocean across the Amazon. Moisture data from\u00a0Wunderling et al. (2022<\/em><\/strong><\/a>)<\/em><\/strong>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/20160220\/Screen-Shot-2022-09-20-at-9.01.57-AM.png\")
The drought-deforestation feedback loop in the Amazon. Image from\u00a0Staal et al. (2020<\/em><\/strong><\/a>)<\/em><\/strong>.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n When it was first conceived, the tipping point concept was thought of as an abrupt ecosystem change, \u201cbut it is now believed that the shift could happen gradually,\u201d over the course of 30 to 50 years, the MAAP report says.<\/p>\n
Rather than thinking of the Amazon Rainforest as \u201cone big tipping element that will vanish from Earth past a certain threshold,\u201d it\u2019s helpful to note that some regions are much more vulnerable to tipping than other regions, Nico Wunderling, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who was not involved in the MAAP report, told Mongabay.<\/p>\n
The southern region of the Amazon, Wunderling and colleagues\u00a0found<\/a>, is most vulnerable. Here, deforestation is at its most extreme along the notorious \u201carc of deforestation<\/a>\u201d being carved into the rainforest by cattle ranching and agriculture.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s a point beyond which the whole Amazon collapses,\u201d Daniel Nepstad, president of the Earth Innovation Institute, told Mongabay in a\u00a02019 interview<\/a>. \u201cIt is all a question of how frequent and intense those really severe droughts are.\u201d<\/p>\n
The first signs of more permanent drying and more severe droughts in the rainforest are already showing, scientists warn. Plant species adapted to wet conditions are\u00a0starting to die<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0satellite images<\/a>\u00a0show\u00a0a decrease in water vapor<\/a>\u00a0over parts of the rainforest that are far from the\u00a0arc of deforestation<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot only is the dry season lengthier, but also it\u2019s drier, with less rainfall, and 2-3\u00b0 [Celsius, or 3.6-5.4\u00b0 Fahrenheit] warmer,\u201d Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil\u2019s top climate scientists and a researcher at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo who reviewed the MAAP report, told Mongabay in a phone call. Droughts, such as those experienced in the Amazon in 2005 and 2010, he said, \u201ccould become the norm.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe risk of the tipping point is very real,\u201d Nobre said.<\/p>\n
![\"Apu\u00ed,](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/08\/10223836\/greenpeace_amazon_2022_GP1SYMMX.jpg\")
Greenpeace Brazil flew over the southern Amazonas and northern Rond\u00f4nia states in Brazil to monitor deforestation and forest fires in the Amazon in July 2022. Shown here are fires in Apu\u00ed, Amazonas state. \u00a9 Christian Braga \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/09\/14171723\/5-768.jpg\")
Understory forest fires may start on farms or in pastures but can escape into standing forests when conditions are dry. Fire-damaged trees eventually die, providing fuel and making the forest more vulnerable to future fires. Image by S\u00e9rgio Vale\/Amaz\u00f4nia Real.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Deforestation and fires in the Amazon have soared under the administration of Brazil\u2019s current president, Jair Bolsonaro, who has adopted\u00a0policies<\/a>\u00a0that undermine Brazil\u2019s various environmental protection and monitoring agencies.\u00a0 Under Bolsonaro, the Brazilian Amazon has lost an area of forest larger than Belgium and recorded its\u00a0highest deforestation rate in 15 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n
In the Amazon, fires aren\u2019t naturally occurring, but rather are\u00a0set after deforestation<\/a>\u00a0to clear the land for\u00a0cattle ranching and soy farming<\/a>. In 2021, more than 44,000 hectares\u00a0(109,000 acres)\u00a0burned<\/a>\u00a0in Brazil alone. A\u00a02021 study<\/a>\u00a0found that the Brazilian Amazon is emitting more carbon than it captures, mostly due to fires.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re thinking a tipping point for the Amazon [is when] it becomes a carbon source, this [southern] region is at a tipping point,\u201d Luciana Gatti, a researcher at INPE, the national space research institute, and lead author of the\u00a02021 study<\/a>, told Mongabay. \u201cMy question is, if we stop now with fires and deforestation and start the very important repair process for forests, could we reverse the picture?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe really have to ramp down [forest] clearing, start fighting fires and ramp up recovery,\u201d Nepstad\u00a0told Mongabay<\/a>\u00a0in 2019. \u201cWe have everything we need to know to act now, urgently, to prevent a large-scale fire and drought driven dieback.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stepping back from the precipice of tipping will require nations to change the monoculture agribusiness models of\u00a0cattle and soy<\/a>, undertake ambitious\u00a0reforestation projects<\/a>, and raise the quality of life for people who live in Amazonian cities by building an economy based on the standing forest, Nobre and the late\u00a0Thomas Lovejoy<\/a>, a prominent and influential conservation biologist who worked with MAAP in the early stages of this report, said in a\u00a02019 editorial<\/a>\u00a0published in\u00a0Science.<\/em><\/p>\n
Nobre noted that a drier Amazon is caused both by deforestation and climate change, so reducing emissions in order to meet the\u00a0Paris Agreemen<\/a>t goal of keeping warming below 1.5\u00b0C is also crucial to averting disaster in the Amazon and beyond.<\/p>\n
![\"Luiz](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/09083511\/Luiz-Inacio-Lula-da-Silva-rallies-his-supporters-2.jpg\")
Former president and poll front-runner Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva rallies his supporters in Belo Horizonte, the Minas Gerais state capital, in August. Experts say the upcoming October election could have important consequences for the fate of the Amazon. Image courtesy of Ricardo Stuckert.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/imgs.mongabay.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/05\/25033011\/GM_Alexandra-Narvaez-_PATROLAlex-Lucitante-Photo_Goldman-Environmental-Prize-11-1024x683-1.jpeg\")
Shown here are members of La Guardia Patrol started by Alexandra Narvaez (third from left) who led an Indigenous movement to protect her ancestral territory from gold mining.\u00a0 Indigenous territories, such as that of the Cof\u00e1n of Sinangoe in northern Ecuador, are important strongholds for biodiversity.\u00a0 Image courtesy of Goldman Environmental Prize.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n \u201cThere is also the more positive side of this story,\u201d Adriane Esquivel Muelbert an expert in Amazon forest change at the University of Birmingham, told Mongabay in an email. \u201cSome large areas of the Amazon are still very wet and not suffering from the increase in aridity. [I]f we control deforestation now we can avoid the Amazon tipping point.\u201d<\/p>\n
Protected areas and Indigenous territories are important strongholds for safeguarding the remaining Amazon Rainforest and\u00a0meeting climate goals<\/a>. Most of the deforestation and fires in the Amazon over the past five years have\u00a0taken place outside of these key land-use designations<\/a>, highlighting the importance of granting and honoring Indigenous land tenure and protected status.<\/p>\n
Upcoming\u00a0elections in Brazil<\/a>\u00a0could also have dramatic consequences for the fate of the Amazon, experts say. \u201cThe re-election of a [Bolsonaro] government that incentivizes deforestation can accelerate the Amazon tipping point drastically,\u201d Muelbert said. \u201cThe election of former president Lula, currently the leading figure at the polls, is promising to bring deforestation rates down again in the Brazilian Amazon\u2026hopefully moving the trajectory of Amazonian forests away from the tipping point.\u201d Lula\u2019s policies once helped to reduce annual deforestation by 82%, to the lowest rate since satellite monitoring began.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, no one can predict how rapidly the forest will change past the tipping point,\u00a0Lovejoy told Mongabay in 2019<\/a>.\u201cWill it be a long slide, or will the kinds of changes that are already being seen start happening with greater magnitude? \u2026 Let\u2019s not find out by tipping it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Citations<\/strong>:<\/p>\n
Finer,\u00a0M., & Mamani,\u00a0N. (2022).\u00a0Amazon tipping point \u2014 Where are we?<\/em>\u00a0(164) Retrieved from MAAP website:\u00a0https:\/\/www.maaproject.org\/2022\/amazon-tipping-point\/<\/a><\/p>\n
Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2018). Amazon tipping point.\u00a0Science Advances<\/em>,\u00a04<\/em>(2), eaat2340. doi:10.1126\/sciadv.aat2340<\/a><\/p>\n
Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Donges, J. F., \u2026 Winkelmann, R. (2022). Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest.\u00a0Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>,\u00a0119<\/em>(32), e2120777119. doi:10.1073\/pnas.2120777119<\/a><\/p>\n
Gatti,\u00a0L.\u00a0V., Basso,\u00a0L.\u00a0S., Miller,\u00a0J.\u00a0B., Gloor,\u00a0M., Gatti Domingues,\u00a0L., Cassol,\u00a0H.\u00a0L., \u2026 Neves,\u00a0R.\u00a0A. (2021). Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.\u00a0Nature<\/em>,\u00a0595<\/em>(7867), 388-393. doi:10.1038\/s41586-021-03629-6<\/a><\/p>\n
Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2019). Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action.\u00a0Science Advances<\/em>,\u00a05<\/em>(12), eaba2949. doi:10.1126\/sciadv.aba2949<\/a><\/p>\n
Esquivel-Muelbert,\u00a0A., Baker,\u00a0T.\u00a0R., Dexter,\u00a0K.\u00a0G., Lewis,\u00a0S.\u00a0L., Brienen,\u00a0R.\u00a0J., Feldpausch,\u00a0T.\u00a0R., \u2026 Phillips,\u00a0O.\u00a0L. (2019). Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.\u00a0Global Change Biology<\/em>,\u00a025<\/em>(1), 39-56. doi:10.1111\/gcb.14413<\/a><\/p>\n
Barkhordarian,\u00a0A., Saatchi,\u00a0S.\u00a0S., Behrangi,\u00a0A., Loikith,\u00a0P.\u00a0C., & Mechoso,\u00a0C.\u00a0R. (2019). A recent systematic increase in vapor pressure deficit over tropical South America.\u00a0Scientific Reports<\/em>,\u00a09<\/em>(1), 15331. doi:10.1038\/s41598-019-51857-8<\/a><\/p>\n
Vargas Zeppetello,\u00a0L.\u00a0R., Raftery,\u00a0A.\u00a0E., & Battisti,\u00a0D.\u00a0S. (2022). Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change.\u00a0Communications Earth & Environment<\/em>,\u00a03<\/em>(1), 183. doi:10.1038\/s43247-022-00524-4<\/a><\/p>\n
Song, X. P., Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P., Adusei, B., Pickering, J., Adami, M., \u2026 Tyukavina, A. (2021). Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation.\u00a0Nature Sustainability<\/em>. doi:10.1038\/s41893-021-00729-z<\/a><\/p>\n
Staal, A., Flores, B. M., Aguiar, A. P. D., Bosmans, J. H., Fetzer, I., & Tuinenburg, O. A. (2020). Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon.\u00a0Environmental Research Letters<\/em>,\u00a015<\/em>(4), 044024. doi:10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab738e<\/a><\/p>\n
Banner image:\u00a0<\/strong>Fire near the Manicor\u00e9 River in Amazonas state in August 2022. Photo \u00a9 Christian Braga \/ Greenpeace<\/p>\n
Liz Kimbrough<\/strong>\u00a0is a staff writer for Mongabay. Find her on Twitter:\u00a0@lizkimbrough_<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n
- In a newly released report, the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP) estimates that 13.2% of the original Amazon forest biome has been lost due to deforestation and other causes.<\/em><\/li>\n