{"id":38416,"date":"2023-05-17T16:48:18","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T19:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/radar\/world-likely-to-breach-1-5c-climate-threshold-by-2027-scientists-warn\/"},"modified":"2023-05-17T16:48:18","modified_gmt":"2023-05-17T19:48:18","slug":"world-likely-to-breach-1-5c-climate-threshold-by-2027-scientists-warn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/radar\/world-likely-to-breach-1-5c-climate-threshold-by-2027-scientists-warn\/","title":{"rendered":"World likely to breach 1.5C climate threshold by 2027, scientists warn"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>THE GUARDIAN<br \/>\n17 de mayo, 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"dcr-1y4fm6e\">Forest fires approaching the village of Pefki on Evia island, Greece, in 2021.<\/span>\u00a0Photograph: Angelos Tzortzinis\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><strong>UN agency says El Ni\u00f1o and human-induced climate breakdown could combine to push temperatures into \u2018uncharted territory\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">The world is almost certain to experience new record temperatures in the next five years, and temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have warned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">The breaching of the crucial 1.5C threshold, which scientists have warned could have dire consequences, should be only temporary, according to research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/p>\n<div id=\"sign-in-gate\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">However, it would represent a marked acceleration of human impacts on the global climate system, and send the world into \u201cuncharted territory\u201d, the UN agency warned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">Countries have pledged, under the 2015\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/paris-climate-agreement\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Paris climate agreement<\/a>, to try to hold global temperatures to no higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, after scientific advice that heating beyond that level would unleash a cascade of increasingly catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">Prof Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the WMO, said: \u201cThis report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">Global average surface temperatures have never before breached the 1.5C threshold. The highest average in previous years was 1.28C above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"0bb6398c-40b4-4776-ae89-355188839fde\" class=\"element element-interactive element--inline element-inline dcr-1lwks7v\" data-alt=\"Global mean near-surface temperature anomalies from 1850-1900 average, \u00b0C\" data-cypress=\"interactive-element-Global%20mean%20near-surface%20temperature%20anomalies%20from%201850-1900%20average,%20%C2%B0C\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\"><iframe title=\"Global mean near-surface temperature anomalies from 1850-1900 average, \u00b0C\" src=\"https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/uploader\/embed\/2023\/05\/global-temp-anomolies-chart\/giv-13425mCFSrs8Tonk8\/\" height=\"522\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<div class=\"ad-slot-container ad-slot-container-2 offset-right ad-slot--offset-right ad-slot-container--offset-right\">\n<div id=\"dfp-ad--inline2\" class=\"js-ad-slot ad-slot ad-slot--inline ad-slot--inline2 ad-slot--rendered\" data-link-name=\"ad slot inline2\" data-name=\"inline2\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-label-show=\"true\" data-google-query-id=\"CLPyseTR__4CFasMTwgd8DML-w\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/59666047\/theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/ng_7__container__\" class=\"ad-slot__content\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">The report, published on Wednesday, found there was a 66% likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">New\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/jan\/05\/uk-average-annual-temperature-tops-10c-for-first-time\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">record temperatures\u00a0<\/a>have been set in many areas around the world in the heatwaves of the past year, but those highs may only be the beginning, according to the report, as climate breakdown and the impact of a developing El Ni\u00f1o weather system combine to create heatwaves across the globe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">El Ni\u00f1o is part of an oscillating weather system that develops in the Pacific. For the past three years, the world has been in the opposing phase, known as La Ni\u00f1a, which has had a dampening effect on temperature increases around the world.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">As La Ni\u00f1a ends and a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/may\/03\/un-warns-heat-records-could-be-broken-as-chance-of-el-nino-rises\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">new El Ni\u00f1o develops<\/a>, there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, the scientists found.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"fb53390c-0d97-4e08-97cf-033df4720808\" class=\"element element-interactive element--inline element-inline dcr-1lwks7v\" data-alt=\"Near-surface temperature anomalies, 12-month average in comparison with 1991-2020\" data-cypress=\"interactive-element-Near-surface%20temperature%20anomalies,%2012-month%20average%20in%20comparison%20with%201991-2020\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\"><iframe title=\"Near-surface temperature anomalies, 12-month average in comparison with 1991-2020\" src=\"https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/uploader\/embed\/2023\/05\/wmo_heatmap\/giv-13425p1o4JZ6CPp6a\/\" height=\"449\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">Taalas warned of the effects. \u201cA warming El Ni\u00f1o is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to be prepared.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">The Arctic is heating much faster than the rest of the world, and this appears to be having an impact on global weather systems, including the jet stream, which has disrupted weather across the northern hemisphere in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>There is likely to be less rainfall this year in the Amazon, Central America, Australia and Indonesia, the report found. This is particularly bad news for the Amazon, where scientists have grown increasingly concerned that a vicious cycle of heating and deforestation could tip the region from rainforest into savannah-like conditions.<\/p>\n<div id=\"maincontent\" class=\"dcr-1ncmr12\">\n<div class=\"article-body-commercial-selector article-body-viewer-selector  dcr-1r94quw\">\n<div class=\"ad-slot-container \">\n<div id=\"dfp-ad--inline1\" class=\"js-ad-slot ad-slot ad-slot--inline ad-slot--inline1 ad-slot--rendered\" data-link-name=\"ad slot inline1\" data-name=\"inline1\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-google-query-id=\"CMPBpoDR__4CFfO70QQdDnIP_w\" data-label-show=\"true\">\n<div id=\"dfp-ad--inline1--passback\" class=\"ad-slot js-ad-slot\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-google-query-id=\"CLr5gKvR__4CFd0lTwgdyCoG1w\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/59666047\/theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/ng_9__container__\"><iframe id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/59666047\/theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/ng_9\" tabindex=\"0\" title=\"3rd party ad content\" role=\"region\" name=\"google_ads_iframe_\/59666047\/theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/ng_9\" width=\"300\" height=\"250\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Advertisement\" data-load-complete=\"true\" data-google-container-id=\"6\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">That could have calamitous consequences for the planet, which relies on rainforests as massive carbon sinks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">Over the next five years, there is likely to be above-average rainfall in northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and the Sahel, according to the report.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">For each year from 2023 to 2027, the global near-surface temperature is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.8C above the pre-industrial average, taken from the years 1850 to 1900.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">The world has warmed considerably in recent years. In 2015, when the Paris agreement was signed, requiring countries to hold global temperature increases to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels while \u201cpursuing efforts\u201d to hold them to 1.5C, it was forecast that the chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5C threshold within the following five years was zero.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-n6w1lc\">This November, governments will meet for the Cop28 UN climate summit, where they will assess progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris agreement. Known as the \u201cglobal stocktake\u201d, this assessment is likely to show that the world is far off track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the 43% this decade that is required to have a good chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"slot-body-end\">\n<div class=\"dcr-oadkbb\">\n<section class=\"dcr-ozirxw\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1qm1lh\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1gda9bs\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"dcr-bl1s76\"><strong>The free press is under attack from multiple forces.<\/strong>\u00a0Media outlets are closing their doors, victims to a broken business model. In much of the world, journalism is morphing into propaganda, as governments dictate what can and can\u2019t be printed. In the last year alone, hundreds of reporters have been killed or imprisoned for doing their jobs. The UN reports that 85% of the world\u2019s population experienced a decline in press freedom in their country in recent years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-bl1s76\">As you join us today from Ecuador we hope you will consider\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/support.theguardian.com\/uk\/contribute?REFPVID=lhtjlaw6wzziveuqlio1&amp;INTCMP=gdnwb_copts_memco_2023-05-12_PRESS_FREEDOMR3_EPIC__ROW_EU_V1_PRESSFREEDOM&amp;acquisitionData=%7B%22source%22%3A%22GUARDIAN_WEB%22%2C%22componentId%22%3A%22gdnwb_copts_memco_2023-05-12_PRESS_FREEDOMR3_EPIC__ROW_EU_V1_PRESSFREEDOM%22%2C%22componentType%22%3A%22ACQUISITIONS_EPIC%22%2C%22campaignCode%22%3A%22gdnwb_copts_memco_2023-05-12_PRESS_FREEDOMR3_EPIC__ROW_EU_V1_PRESSFREEDOM%22%2C%22abTests%22%3A%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%222023-05-12_PRESS_FREEDOMR3_EPIC__ROW_EU%22%2C%22variant%22%3A%22V1_PRESSFREEDOM%22%7D%5D%2C%22referrerPageviewId%22%3A%22lhtjlaw6wzziveuqlio1%22%2C%22referrerUrl%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fenvironment%2F2023%2Fmay%2F17%2Fglobal-heating-climate-crisis-record-temperatures-wmo-research%22%2C%22isRemote%22%3Atrue%2C%22labels%22%3A%5B%22body-link%22%5D%7D&amp;numArticles=1\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">supporting us<\/a>\u00a0in our efforts to do something about this. Despite the financial challenges plaguing the media industry, we\u2019ve decided to keep our journalism paywall-free, because we believe everyone has the right to high-quality, fact-checked reporting. And we maintain our independence thanks to generosity from readers all over the world, who understand that supporting the free press is an investment in an informed and empowered public.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-bl1s76\">Unlike many others, we have no billionaire owner \u2013\u00a0this helps us maintain the freedom to fearlessly chase the truth and report it with integrity. Your support will allow us to continue to work with trademark determination and passion to bring you journalism that\u2019s always free from commercial or political interference.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Tomado de: https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/may\/17\/global-heating-climate-crisis-record-temperatures-wmo-research<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The world is almost certain to experience new record temperatures in the next five years, and temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have warned.<\/p>\n<p>The breaching of the crucial 1.5C threshold, which scientists have warned could have dire consequences, should be only temporary, according to research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/p>\n<p>However, it would represent a marked acceleration of human impacts on the global climate system, and send the world into \u201cuncharted territory\u201d, the UN agency warned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":327,"featured_media":38413,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-radar","category-1","description-off"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/327"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.raisg.org\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}